KUALA LUMPUR, 24 February 2026 — Malaysia’s palm oil production eased seasonally to 1.58 million tonnes in January, down 13.8% month-on-month. Meanwhile, exports strengthened to 1.48 million tonnes, up 11.4% from December, marking the second-highest monthly export volume in the past 12 months. The increase in exports was driven primarily by stronger demand from India and Egypt, with shipments to India reaching a 15-month high and exports to Egypt climbing to a 13-month high.
Palm oil fundamentals are expected to gradually improve in the coming months. Firmer Malaysian exports in Q1 and Indonesia’s front-loading of shipments ahead of the March export levy hike, is projected to reduce palm oil inventories in both countries.
On the demand side, India is expected to shift consumption back toward palm oil following improved price competitiveness since late 2025. Palm oil consumption in India is forecast to rise by 800,000 tonnes in 2026, while soybean and sunflower oil consumption is expected to decline by a combined 400,000 tonnes. January 2026 data reflects this shift, with India’s palm oil imports rising to a 4-month high, while soybean oil imports falling to an 11-month low.
Globally, vegetable oil prices remained well supported in February, underpinned by optimism surrounding US biofuel policy and firmer crude oil prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Brent crude oil prices rebounded 17% year-to-date to USD72 in February, while prices of the four major vegetable oils increased between 1% and 7% over the same period.
Optimism over US biofuel policy, which favours domestically produced soybean oil, further lifted prices. US soybean oil rallied 17% in February, trading at a significant premium of USD172 over Argentine-origin soybean oil. The sustained strength in US soybean oil prices is likely to continue providing support to palm oil prices.
Despite these supportive factors, upside potential in palm oil prices may be partially capped by rising soybean crushing, particularly in China. The country became a net exporter of soybean oil for the first time in 2025 and is expected to maintain this position in 2026, with exports projected at around 850,000 tonnes. India accounted for nearly half of China’s soybean oil exports last year.
Tightening near-term supply, improving Indian demand and firm US soybean oil prices should keep palm oil prices supported. However, ample global soybean supply and rising Chinese soybean oil exports may limit gains. Palm oil prices are therefore projected to consolidate within the range of RM4,000 – RM4,300 per tonne in March.
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About the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC)
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) is dedicated to promoting the global market expansion of Malaysian palm oil and its derivatives by enhancing its image and acceptance through technological innovation, economic value, and environmental sustainability. With a vision to position Malaysia as the world leader in certified sustainable palm oil, MPOC champions the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification as a benchmark for ethical and responsible production. Through a strategic network of international offices in key markets – including China, India, the Middle East, Africa, and ASEAN – MPOC actively engages stakeholders, opens new market opportunities, and strengthens the global presence of Malaysian palm oil. As a cornerstone of Malaysia’s economy, the palm oil industry contributed RM109 billion in export earnings in 2024, accounting for 24% of global production and 32% of exports. MPOC remains committed to driving sustainable growth and global leadership in the palm oil sector.
