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CPO Prices to Remain Supported Around RM4,400 as Weather Risks Add to Supply Uncertainty

KUALA LUMPUR, 19 May 2026 — Malaysia’s palm oil stocks recovered marginally to 2.31 million tonnes in April, supported by a seasonal rise in production. Palm oil production typically trends higher between March and October, as drier weather improves harvesting productivity and fresh fruit bunches yield higher oil extraction rates.

Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 rose by 25.5% (+1.1 million tonnes) to 5.38 million tonnes, the highest level since 2019. However, exports fell 14.3% month-on-month in April to 1.30 million tonnes. Despite the monthly decline, exports remained firm, accounting for 80% of Malaysia’s palm oil production during the month.

Soybean oil prices in the European market rose to the highest level since November 2022 in mid-May, making it the most expensive major vegetable oil, supported by demand from the US biofuel sector. During this period, soybean oil was trading at a premium of USD145/tonne over rapeseed oil, USD110/tonne over palm oil and USD45/tonne over sunflower oil in the global market.

The latest US biofuel developments have improved palm oil’s price competitiveness across major markets. Palm oil remains the most competitively priced vegetable oil in India, while palm olein prices in Malaysia were also trading at a marginal discount to Argentine soybean oil, a pricing dynamic that should continue to support palm oil demand.

In Q1 2026, combined palm oil exports from Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand rose by 1.9 million tonnes. However, this trend is expected to reverse from April to September, with Oil World projecting combined exports from the three countries to decline by 2 million tonnes in Q2 and Q3, mainly due to lower Indonesian exports.

Malaysia’s exports are projected to rise by 400,000 tonnes during the period, while Indonesia’s exports are forecast to decline by 1.7 million tonnes as more palm oil is redirected towards domestic energy use. As a result, a sharp build-up in palm oil stocks is unlikely during the upcoming peak production season in Southeast Asia.

The USDA released its first estimates for oilseed production in the 2026/27 season, with all three major oilseeds projected to reach record highs. Global soybean production is forecast to rise by 14 million tonnes, sunflowerseed by 7 million tonnes and rapeseed by 1.4 million tonnes. Collectively, production of these three oilseeds is expected to increase by 4% or 22.4 million tonnes to a record 600 million tonnes.

 

For more information on MPOC and Malaysian palm oil, visit www.mpoc.org.my


 

For all media enquiries, please contact:
Kartigha Ayamanny, Assistant Manager, Sustainability, Promotions and Communication
Email: kartigha@mpoc.org.my

 


 

The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC)
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) is dedicated to promoting the global market expansion of Malaysian palm oil and its derivatives by enhancing its image and acceptance through technological innovation, economic value, and environmental sustainability, with a vision to position Malaysia as the world leader in certified sustainable palm oil. Through a strategic network of international offices in key markets – including China, India, the Middle East, Africa, and ASEAN – MPOC actively engages stakeholders, opens new market opportunities, and strengthens the global presence of Malaysian palm oil. As a cornerstone of Malaysia’s economy, the palm oil industry contributed RM 112.5 billion in export earnings in 2025. MPOC remains committed to driving sustainable growth and global leadership in the palm oil sector.

 

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