ISTA Mielke GmbH (Oil World) executive director Thomas Mielke. — Bloomberg
KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil exports are projected to reach up to 16 million tonnes in 2026 driven by lower stock levels, according to an expert.
Ista Mielke GmbH (Oil World) executive director Thomas Mielke said Malaysia’s export performance in the first month of the year had shown encouraging signs for the months ahead.
“Palm oil production for the full year may stay slightly below 20 million tonnes,” he said during the “World supply, demand and price outlook of palm and lauric oils, and impacts from other vegetable oils” paper session at the 37th Palm and lauric oils price outlook conference and exhibition 2026 here on Tuesday.
Mielke noted that the year-on-year increase is ongoing for now in the January-March quarter, providing a boost to production in Malaysia during the first three to five months of this year.
According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), palm oil exports stood at 16.61 million tonnes in 2025.
The exports rose 11.44%t in January 2026 to 1.48 million tonnes from 1.33 million tonnes in December 2025.
In its January 2026 performance report, MPOB said crude palm oil (CPO) production fell 13.78%, or 252,095 tonnes, to 1.58 million tonnes from 1.83 million tonnes in the previous month.
Mielke said the global market share for palm oil is projected to ease over the next 10 years, as it would be able to satisfy only 15% to 20 %t of the world’s oil and fats consumption growth.
“The decline creates a difficult situation for consumers worldwide, unless Indonesia’s biodiesel mandates are reduced.
“Indonesia will probably not be able to continue with the B40 biodiesel mandate in 2027 if production declines and if the spread to gas oil widens further and palm oil exports decline,” he said.
Mielke anticipated that global palm oil annual growth would contract by 1.3 million tonnes or less in 2030 from an average annual growth of 2.9 million tonnes recorded in 2020, if Indonesian production continues to shrink in 2027 and 2028.
Source: The Star
